On 24 February 1949 the Army General Staff's Plans and Operations Division asked the Intelligence Division for an evaluation of the flying saucer reports. Its own memorandum for record explains why: "P&O has not received any evaluation of the flying saucer type of phenomenon," and "until it is properly evaluated, a possibility exists that this phenomenon may have foreign implication." Three recent cables, two from Kirtland Air Force Base and one from Air Materiel Command, had triggered the request.
Intelligence answered on 7 March with a one-page "Evaluation Study of Phenomenon." It records that "Detailed investigations of all incidents reported to involve unusual flying objects during the period June 1946 to date have been conducted by a special project group of Headquarters, Air Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio," with cases "fully explored" by AMC personnel "and other specialists, such as those of the RAND Corporation."
The numbers: "Of some 210 incidents, approximately twenty (20) per cent have been explained." "The majority of these involved misidentification of synoptic weather balloons," with others explained as "airborne cosmic ray research equipment, bolides, meteors, and in one instance, the daylight observation of the planet Venus." "Only two reported incidents were determined to have been hoax." On origin: "To date there has been no tangible evidence which would support a theory that any incidents are attributable to activity of a foreign nation," and "There are no highly secret experimental Projects of the U.S. Government that could be responsible." The Division expected the remaining 80 percent would be explained "if complete data were available," attributing the volume of reports to "the publicity given 'flying saucers' in the public print and in some official circles."
The file reopened in April. On 3 April 1949 Walter Winchell told an ABC radio audience that the saucers "are now definitely known to have been guided missiles shot all the way from Russia." Plans and Operations sent the transcript back to Intelligence on 5 April, asking it to "verify the accuracy of Mr. Winchell's statement and obtain, if possible, the source of his information." On 18 April Intelligence replied that it was unable to verify the statement and had no information as to its basis, while recognising "the interest of defense planners in any object capable of being 'shot all the way from Russia'" and undertaking to keep the matter under scrutiny. The file is transcribed below.
CONFIDENTIAL on the individual papers; the file folder is stamped SECRET. All classification markings are struck through (declassified - authority NND 803133) 24 February 1949 - 20 April 1949
U.S. Army General Staff - Evaluation Study of Phenomenon (Flying Saucers), P&O 350.05 File (24 February - 20 April 1949)
WHAT THIS FILE IS. In February 1949 the U.S. Army's Plans & Operations Division discovered that it had never been given any assessment of the 'flying saucer' reports then reaching Washington. It formally asked the Army's Intelligence Division for one. The Intelligence Division answered on 7 March 1949 with a one-page paper, 'Evaluation Study of Phenomenon.' Six weeks later the same file was reopened when radio commentator Walter Winchell told a national audience that flying saucers were Russian guided missiles - and the Army had to state, in writing, whether that was true. Key passages are quoted below with page numbers from the released PDF.
- DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY - GENERAL STAFF UNITED STATES ARMY - PLANS & OPERATIONS DIVISION - RECORDS & MESSAGE BRANCH (folder, page 2)
- File: P&O 350.05 - Subject: Evaluation Study of Phenomenon (Flying Saucers)
- Action officer: Lt Col Peisinger, Executive Branch, P&O (later Maj J. S. Byrne)
- Declassification authority stamp: NND 803133 (page 1)
1. Why the study was ordered (24 February 1949)
A memorandum for record by Lt Col Peisinger records that the planners had simply never been told anything: 'Conversations with the Chief of North Am Br and Office, Deputy Dir P&O (AE) reveal that P&O has not received any evaluation of the flying saucer type of phenomenon.' The reason they wanted one was blunt - 'until it is properly evaluated, a possibility exists that this phenomenon may have foreign implication.' (page 4)
The same memorandum records that Col Ligon of the Intelligence Group suggested P&O ask the Intelligence Division (ID) 'to make a study on this whole subject insofar as it pertains to continental U.S.,' coordinating with the Air Force. (page 4)
The formal request went out the same day as Comment No. 1 on a disposition form, over the signature of JOHN S. GUTHRIE, Colonel, GSC, Executive, P&O. It cited three cables as the trigger: CM IN 321, 2 Feb 49, from CO, Kirtland AFB, N.M., to Chief of Staff, USAF, No. OSI-1-9C, 31 Jan 49; CM IN 1714, 8 Feb 49, from CG, AMC, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, to CO, Flight Service, No. AT-542, 7 Feb 49; and CM IN 4712, 19 Feb 49, from CO, Kirtland AFB, N.M., to Chief of Staff, USAF. The request itself: 'Request that an evaluation study be made of the phenomenon referred to above insofar as it concerns continental United States and that a copy of the study be furnished to this Division.' (pages 5 and 9)
2. The Evaluation Study of Phenomenon (transmitted 7 March 1949, page 11)
The study was forwarded as Comment No. 2 on the disposition form - 'Attached hereto is the Evaluation Study requested in your paragraph 2.' - for the Chief, Intelligence Group, signed JAMES E. LIGON, Lt. Col., GSC, Asst. Exec., Int. Gp., CSGID, dated 7 March 1949. (page 9)
The study is a single unsigned page headed 'Evaluation Study of Phenomenon.' Its five paragraphs are transcribed in full below.
"Detailed investigations of all incidents reported to involve unusual flying objects during the period June 1946 to date have been conducted by a special project group of Headquarters, Air Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. The continuing efforts of this project are directed toward establishing the identity of each unusual object reported. Single or seemingly related incidents which appear to involve objects that might represent some unusual man-made device or activity are fully explored by both the AMC project personnel and other specialists, such as those of the RAND Corporation (formerly Project RAND)." (page 11)
"Of some 210 incidents, approximately twenty (20) per cent have been explained. The majority of these involved misidentification of synoptic weather balloons. Others involved observations of airborne cosmic ray research equipment, bolides, meteors, and in one instance, the daylight observation of the planet Venus. Only two reported incidents were determined to have been hoax." (page 11)
"To date there has been no tangible evidence which would support a theory that any incidents are attributable to activity of a foreign nation. There are no highly secret experimental Projects of the U.S. Government that could be responsible. The possibility of foreign devices would represent achievements which defy many well defined limits in aeronautical science." (page 11)
"The Air Materiel Command of the USAF is continuing investigations of each unexplained incident. In addition, they are utilizing the consulting services of a number of agencies and specialists. Results are reviewed on a continuing basis and are used in formulating probable explanations for sightings that still lack positive identification." (page 11)
"The ID feels that if complete data were available the remaining 80% of the reported sightings could be eliminated as due to natural meteorological phenomena or domestic weather balloons and the like. The larger number of actual reports of unidentified objects is thought to be primarily due to the publicity given “flying saucers” in the public print and in some official circles." (page 11)
3. What P&O did with it (22 March 1949)
Lt Col Peisinger's memorandum for record of 22 March 1949 states the purpose of the exercise in one sentence: the study 'was prepared at request of P&O to determine if the various reports on this subject stemmed from natural phenomena or if the origin could be traced definitely to the activities of a foreign power.' He added a standing requirement: 'ID is to keep P&O informed if future developments in this field are at variance with the evaluation placed on this study.' The file was to be circulated and then filed in P&O. (page 8)
4. The Walter Winchell broadcast, 3 April 1949
On 3 April 1949 the commentator Walter Winchell said on ABC (as summarized in the Daily Radio Digest at inclosure 2, item 3 April 49-23, under the heading “FLYING SAUCERS”): "Washington--This will not be confirmed by anyone in authority in Washington at this time; but, if anybody denies it, the denier will be a liar. The “flying saucers,” never explained by anyone in authority, are now definitely known to have been guided missiles shot all the way from Russia." A reader has underlined the passage in pencil. (page 25)
Two days later, on 5 April 1949, P&O sent Comment No. 1 to the Intelligence Division (ATTN: Mr. Stites), again over Colonel Guthrie's signature: 'If Mr. Winchell's statement is correct, then these flying saucers will be of tremendous interest to our National Defense planners,' and 'Request that your Division verify the accuracy of Mr. Winchell's statement and obtain, if possible, the source of his information.' Two inclosures went with it: the Evaluation Study, and the bulletin carrying Winchell's remarks. (page 18; the internal memorandum for record is at page 13)
5. The Intelligence Division's answer (18 April 1949, page 16)
Comment No. 2, CSGID-ID 9-350.05, dated 18 April 1949 and signed E. J. TREACY, JR., Lt. Col., GSC, Acting Assistant Executive, for the Director of Intelligence, states first that 'The “Evaluation Study of Phenomenon” at Inclosure 1 hereto represents the current Intelligence Division, GSUSA, evaluation of the “flying saucers.”'
It then acknowledged the planners' concern: 'CSGID recognizes the interest of defense planners in any object capable of being “shot all the way from Russia,” and will continue to keep the matter under scrutiny. Any change in the evaluation contained at Inclosure No. 1 will be promptly transmitted to CSGPO.' (page 16)
On Winchell himself the answer was flatly negative: 'CSGID is unable to verify Mr. Winchell's statement that “flying saucers * * * are now definitely known to have been guided missiles shot all the way from Russia” and has no information as to the basis for the statement or “information” on which it may have been based. It is, however, possible that Mr. Winchell published this item in an attempt to obtain some official statement from the NME on the subject.' (page 16)
The closing memorandum for record by Maj J. S. Byrne, 20 April 1949, summarizes the whole sequence - February cables, the 24 Feb request, the 7 Mar evaluation, the Winchell broadcast, the verification request and the ID answer - and notes 'PID not informed.' The covering routing sheet carries the handwritten-era comment: 'This may be of interest to Generals Maddocks, Nichols, Schuyler and Timberman.' (pages 15 and 14)
Inclosure 2: the bulletins
Pages 20-21 are a two-page wire-service BULLETIN 'PREPARED BY THE ANALYSIS BRANCH, PUBLIC INFORMATION DIVISION - DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY.' The first page is dated '4 MARCH 1949, 9:45 A.M.', but the bulletin itself corrects this at the foot of page 2: 'CERTAIN COPIES OF THE WIRE SERVICE BULLETIN OF 4 APRIL 1949 ARE ERRONEOUSLY DATED 4 MARCH.' Pages 22-25 are pages 3 through 6 (marked '6-END') of the DAILY RADIO DIGEST #2216, HIGHLIGHTS, 4 April 1949, which carries the Winchell flying-saucer item on its final page. Neither bulletin page contains any Army comment on saucers beyond reprinting the broadcasters.
Released in the PURSUE disclosure as the Plans & Operations Division file P&O 350.05, 'Evaluation Study of Phenomenon (Flying Saucers).' The PDF runs 25 pages (NARA DocId 34748466). This transcription covers the substantive typed pages: 3-5 (opening cover sheet, memorandum for record and Comment No. 1), 7-9 (routing, memorandum for record and the disposition form carrying Comment No. 2), 11 (the Evaluation Study itself), 12-16 and 18 (the Walter Winchell follow-up), and 20-25 (the two inclosures: the Army Public Information Division wire-service Bulletin and the Daily Radio Digest of 4 April 1949). Pages 1-2 are the file folder covers; pages 6, 10, 17 and 19 are blank versos showing only stamps and bleed-through. No redactions appear anywhere in the file. · Department of the Army, General Staff United States Army, Plans & Operations Division (D/P&O, GSUSA) and Intelligence Division (D/ID, GSUSA), Washington (DoW-UAP-D084)
All documents and footage are authentic, public-domain U.S. government releases. Narration is AI-generated text-to-speech.